Big Data Analytics Reveals Most Influential in Social Media for 2022 Elections

WR Numero Research (WRN Research), pioneers the Philippines’ first Social Media Political Influence Report which reveals who among the potential candidates for president, vice president, and senator in the upcoming 2022 general elections have the most positive influence online. 

This report is NOT a survey. Data was gathered by measuring public  opinion using big data analytics, specifically sentiment analysis and natural language processing methods. The report prioritized results with positive engagements relative to negative engagements. Those labeled as influential personalities in social media are those who gained high positive sentiments with low negative sentiments. The results of this independent report were conducted between April 20 to June 5, 2021.

This was made possible through Pathos, WRN’s proprietary big data and sentiment analytics software. This monthly report measures and tracks who among the public figures in the country are making the most impact online, and who among them can set the agenda or tone of public conversations in digital spaces. This novel and innovative way of measuring data show that social media is related to electoral success in the digital age.

Isko Moreno and Manny Pacquiao Dominate the Digital Space, as of June 5, 2021.

A Mix of Opposition, Administration, Newcomers, and Returnees Dominate Top 10 in our Social Media Political Influence Report, as of June 5, 2021.

The need to measure political influence in social media for the 2022 elections: :

  1. Political campaigns have shifted to the digital age. The impact one makes online is easily amplified beyond the digital world as trends are regularly picked up by print and broadcast media. The connected users then spread their trends and information to other users and communities involved in their everyday conversations. 
  1. Social media poses a powerful factor in electoral success, thus the need to measure it well. The shift of campaigning towards “Digital War” on whom amongst the politicians can be the most influential in the digital space is a global trend. Political campaigning has drastically changed in the past decade thanks to social media. The Obama and Trump elections in the USA used social media to communicate with the people better and gain more supporters. This also happened in the Philippines with PNoy and Duterte’s campaign elections. 
  1. The COVID-19 Pandemic is also believed to accelerate these shifts in politics. Analysts agree that the 2022 election campaigns will be waged in a mostly digital landscape with first-tech strategies. It is also worth mentioning that maintaining an online presence is no longer sufficient in the current era, as gaining digital political influence is the key to developing broad public support and trust. 

The method is premised on the following ideas: 

  1. We assess the quality of the sentiments, not just the absolute number of positive sentiments. Positive sentiments in comments are good approximations of political support. But positive engagements are not considered in isolation. It has to be juxtaposed with the level of negative sentiments or non-support. This relational approach is a more accurate way of measuring influence online.  
  2. “Trolls” were counted in the conversation bubble. To properly measure online influence, there is a need to also include what “trolls” or other fake accounts are saying online. The clout that they are creating has a bandwagon effect towards organic social media users. Measuring and monitoring their activity is a crucial part of digital influence. 
  3. To get the overall influence share, we used 3 major data clusters which were all equally weighed.  These sources are the politician’s official page, the mainstream news pages, and alternative media pages. For the alternative media pages, these are politically inclined pages that are not a part of mainstream news but voice out their support to their chosen politicians. The top pages with the most active posts were all comprehensively considered and included in this research. 

This research report was made and designed by WR Numero, one of the leading polling and data analytics companies in the Philippines.  

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Jasmin Evangelista

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