WR Numero poll shows VP Duterte remains top presidential bet in 2028


Vice President Sara Duterte is the most preferred candidate of Filipinos for the 2028 presidential election, public opinion research firm WR Numero showed.

In its inaugural Philippine Public Opinion Monitor (The Opinion Monitor), WR Numero found that almost 36 percent of Filipinos would vote for the incumbent vice president if the 2028 presidential elections were held last December 2023.

Senator Raffy Tulfo ranked as the second most preferred candidate at 23 percent, followed by former Vice President Leni Robredo at 9 percent. The support of nearly 19 percent Filipinos was split among six candidates—Senator Imee Marcos (7 percent), former senator Manny Pacquiao (5 percent), Senator Robin Padilla (5 percent), Senator Risa Hontiveros (1 percent), and Speaker Martin Romualdez (1 percent). The remaining 14 percent were undecided.

This nationally representative survey is conducted face-to-face every quarter among 1,457 Filipino adults, aged 18 years old and above, across the country between November 24 and December 24, 2023. The nationwide survey has a ± 3 percent error margin at the 99 percent confidence level. At the sub-national level, the estimates for error margin are ± 9 percent for the National Capital Region, ± 5 percent for the rest of Luzon, ± 8 percent for Visayas, and ± 7 percent for Mindanao at a similar 99 percent confidence level.

No individual or entity, partisan or otherwise, has singularly commissioned the independent survey.

The nationwide survey also revealed that Vice President Duterte emerged as the top choice of Filipinos who were first-time voters (43 percent), likely voters (33 percent), non-participating registered voters (38 percent), and unregistered eligible voters (28 percent).

She was also the preferred candidate of administration supporters (44 percent), those who identify themselves as independent (31 percent) and unsure (31 percent). The Vice President only ranked third among opposition supporters, after Tulfo (35 percent) and Robredo (24 percent).

Moreover, the survey reported that Duterte is the preferred candidate of both female (35 percent) and male (36 percent) voters. This also extends across different gender groups including those identifying as heterosexual (35 percent) and as members of LGBTQIA+ community (45 percent), and those who refuse to disclose their gender (74 percent).

Duterte also received the highest level of voter preference across all age groups: 30 years old and below (37 percent), 31 to 59 years old (36 percent), and 60 years old and above (30 percent); and income class: Class ABC (41 percent), Class D (36 percent), and Class E (35 percent) (See Figure 6 and Figure 8, respectively).

The same can be observed from both OFW-remittances receiving and non-remittances receiving households with 40 percent and 35 percent of Filipinos, respectively, saying they would vote for Duterte for president (See Figure 7).

Duterte recorded the highest voter preference in Mindanao (57 percent), followed by Metro Manila (39 percent), and Visayas (35 percent). She placed second in the Rest of Luzon at 23 percent after Tulfo (26 percent). She is also the top choice in both rural (33 percent) and urban areas (38 percent), as well as in most geographic areas (See Figure 9 and Figure 10, respectively).

These findings form part of WR Numero’s flagship public opinion research initiative, the Philippine Public Opinion Monitor, which will be launched on 30 January 2024 (Tuesday) on the WR Numero website (www.wrnumero.com). A full report will be made public on the same date discussing in detail the results of the survey as well as its methodology.

The Opinion Monitor aims to further enrich the Philippine polling landscape by pioneering survey design that brings a specialized focus on tracking the political attitudes and preferences of Filipino voters according to partisanship and voter type. This innovation introduces novel demographic groupings that matter most to understanding and analyzing trends in political and social behavior. It also gives attention to new demographic groups, such as different age groups (youth, adult, and senior) and genders (heterosexual, LGBTQIA+, etc.)

Source: Business Mirror