BBM leading but voter turnout, soft voters, and undecideds may still influence election outcome—WR Numero Research

As the May 9 national election approaches, former senator Bongbong Marcos maintained his lead as the top presidential bet, but WR Numero Research (WRN) said voter turnout, “soft” supporters, and undecided voters could still influence poll results.

In its April 2022 survey, WRN found that 57.22% of voters would choose Marcos if the election were held between 25-30 April 2022. Vice-president Leni Robredo followed as she was cited by 19.24% of the 2,000 respondents that participated in the digital survey. Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso (4.80%), Senators Ping Lacson (4.32%), and Manny Pacquiao (2.77%) had a combined share of 11.89%, close to the 11.65% of respondents who have yet to decide.

BBM maintains his strong lead at 57%. Leni is second at 19%. Isko, Ping, and Manny lag behind at <5%.

Over the last week of April, support for Marcos rebounded by 1.58% points to 57.22%, after slipping 1.14% points to 55.64% in the third week. Robredo saw a 3.61%-point increase in the third week but later dropped 1.39% points to 19.24%. Moreno declined gradually from 6.51% in the second week to 5.59% and to 4.8% in the latter part of the month. Lacson and Pacquiao rose by 1.79% and 0.38% points, respectively; while the share of unsure voters grew by 1.56% points to 11.65%. WRN have been conducting weekly digital surveys since October 2021.

BBM Consistently maintains his lead (+1.58 pts). Leni (-1.39 pts) and Isko (-0.79 pts) decreased on the last week of April.

Four out of ten may change vote preference
The April 2022 WRN survey also revealed that of the respondents, 62.84% are hard voters, while the remaining 34.95% are soft voters. This means that almost 4 out of 10 voters may still change their vote preference for president between the survey period and until election day. More than half of Filipino voters, or 55%, also said they have had a presidential choice since the beginning of the campaign period, but only 33% made a decision in March and April. In particular, 10.46% decided in March, 9.54% in the month of April, and 12.7% in the last week of April. Among the presidential aspirants, Robredo emerged as the leading candidate at 78.22%, in terms of having “hard” voters, followed by Marcos with 73.35% and Moreno with 58.15%. Robredo also registered the least number of “soft” voters with only 21.78%
against Marcos’ with 26.65% and Moreno’s 41.85%.

Leni has the highest percentage of hard voters among the top candidates (78-22).

WRN uses cutting-edge statistical techniques to recruit survey respondents online and produce a representative sample of the Philippine voting population. The firm recruits new respondents for each and every digital survey conducted. For WRN April 2022 survey, a representative sample of 2,000 respondents were selected from a high-quality online research panel. The panelists were invited to the survey-based on their age, income, sex, and voting residence, in proportion to these demographic
groups in the most recently available Commission on Elections and Philippine Statistics Authority data.
Survey responses were statistically weighted to the national profile of all Filipino voters (including those without internet access). All reputable public opinion research agencies weight data to correct sampling issues in surveys, whether conducted online or face-to-face. The use of statistical weights ensure that the final survey data properly reflect the target population.

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Jasmin Evangelista
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